2022年9月旧文：美国空军将领提到中国正快速发展第六代战机
本帖最后由 onepiece 于 2024-12-27 16:50 编辑中国的两种新战机亮相，对美国空军应该不会太意外。
2022年9月26日一篇Breaking Defence报导就引述美国空军空战司令部（Air Combat Command，ACC）司令马克.凯利上将（Gen. Mark Kelly）在2022年9月19日美国空中与空天武力协会（Air and Space Force Association）圆桌会议的评论，他们已经知道中国在发展类似美国第六代战机的东西，而且进展顺利。
现在情况看来，马克.凯利上将预言（他不希望）的情况──中国发展六代机进度超车美国──可能成真了。文中是提到美国在2020年试飞了NGAD项目概念的原型机，但这个项目范畴太过庞杂，很难收敛。
（先前网路上出现疑似美国NGAD概念机的影像，此概念机在2020年试飞）
https://breakingdefense.com/2022 ... re-first-acc-chief/
China ‘on track’ for 6th-gen fighter, US Air Force needs to get there first: ACC chief
America's Chinese "frenemies" are "not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance. And I can also tell you they're on track," said Air Combat Command head Gen. Mark Kelly.
By Valerie Insinna
on September 26, 2022 at 11:37 AM
2022 Changchun Air Show Kicks Off
WASHINGTON — With China “on track” to develop a sixth-generation fighter, the US Air Force needs to ensure it fields its own next-generation fighter first, the head of Air Combat Command said recently.
马克.凯利上将：“我无法告诉你今天中国正在发生什么，除了他们正在为**20大**做准备。但我可以告诉你，他们没有在争论第六代空中压制是否重要。而且我还可以告诉你，他们的项目在轨道上。“
“我们（美国空军）必须确保我们在第六代空中压制领域，比起我们的竟先对手至少领先一个月“
“I cannot tell you today what’s going on in China except they’re planning for their 20th National Party Congress . But I can tell you what’s not happening.
They’re not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance.
And I can also tell you they’re on track,” ACC commander Gen. Mark Kelly said during a roundtable with reporters at the Air and Space Force Association’s Air, Space and Cyber conference last week.
The US Air Force needs to “make sure we get to six-gen air dominance at least a month prior to our competitors,” Kelly said.
While most nations — including the United States — have divulged little information about their sixth generation fighter programs, China has been even more secretive about its efforts.
During a 2019 interview, Wang Haifeng, chief designer for the Chengdu Aerospace Corporation, stated that China was conducting pre-research on a next-generation fighter, with an eye to having a new capability ready to “protect the sea and sky” by 2035.
While Wang said little about China’s design, he pointed to several elements that he believed would characterize future US fighter capability, such as being able to team with drones, the use of artificial intelligence, improvements in stealth and omnidirectional sensors. Designs could also feature “less cHHain” disruptive technologies, such as drone swarms, lasers and adaptive engines, he said.
2019年的采访中，成都空天公司首席设计师Wang Haifeng表示，中国正在进行下一代战斗机的预研，著眼于2035年来保卫海空的新技术。他并未透露更多中方的设计，而是提到他认为美国未来战斗机著眼的能力，包括与无-人-机协同作战、使用人工智能、进一步提高隐身性以及全向感知能力等；他还提到一些未来战机“不太确定”的颠覆性技术，例如**集群、激光武器和自适应发动机。
Currently, the US Air Force is on track to become the first six-gen fighter user, provided it can begin fielding its Next Generation Air Dominance family of systems on time — “by the end of the decade,” according to Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall. The service first flew a manned NGAD prototype in 2020, and Kendall has said the service could pick a manufacturer for the program in the near future.
目前，美国空军正在成为首个部署第六代战斗机的目标迈进──前提是其下一代空中优势（NGAD）系统家族能够按计划在本世纪末投入使用。空军部长弗兰克·肯德尔（Frank Kendall）说，NGAD于2020年首次试飞了一架有人驾驶的NGAD原型机，且可能会在不久的未来确定该项目的制造商（当然，近期传出了NGAD项目定义方面的挣扎，这是后话）
However, the program is very complex — with a family of systems that includes a manned fighter, new weapons and likely several varieties of drones — and will be hugely expensive, with the manned NGAD fighter costing “hundreds of millions” per unit, according to Kendall. All of that could drive potential schedule delays, closing the gap between the US and Chinese timelines.
然而，NGAD项目非常复杂，其系统家族包括有人驾驶战斗机、新型武器以及可能多种类型的无─人-机——且成本将极其高昂。根据肯德尔的说法，有人驾驶的NGAD战斗机每架成本高达数亿美元。所有这些因素可能导致进度延迟，从而缩小美国与中国之间的时间差距。
During the roundtable, Kelly said that China’s conception of a sixth-generation fighter seem to mirror the United States’ own.
“By and large is they see it greatly the way we see it in terms of an exponential reduction in signature and exponential acceleration in processing power and sensing, and the ability to iterate in terms of open mission systems, to be able to eHHntially reprogram at the speed of relevance,” Kelly said. “The differences, I think, are a nuance.”
在圆桌讨论中，马克.凯利上将表示，“总体而言，他们在很多方面的看法与我们一致，比如显著降低信号特征、提升运算处理能力和态势感知能力，以及在开放任务系统上具备快速迭代演进的能力，
基本上可以相对快速地进行重新编程”。马克.凯利认为，中美之间看法的不同“仅是一些细节。”
For instance, China tends to slowly iterate from one fighter variant into another, such as how China morphed Russia’s Su-27 and Su-30 into its domestically produced J-16, Kelly said. By co**ast, American aircraft design is characterized by large jumps in capability.
“We as a nation, we tend to let go of the trapeze and kind of make a leap for the next rung. Our Chinese frenemies, they tend to iterate,” he said. “That makes a little bit easier for them to grab the rung when they go off-pitch.”
马克.凯利上将说，中国倾向于通过逐步迭代，从一种战机型号过渡发展到另一种型号，例如将俄罗斯的苏-27和苏-30转化为国产的歼-16。相比之下，美国的飞机设计则著重于「巨大的飞跃」。
“我们这个国家（美国），倾向「在秋千上放手」跃向下一个阶梯。而我们的中国‘半敌半友’（frenemies），则倾向于逐步迭代，”他说道。“这让他们在偏离轨道时，更容易抓住阶梯。”
Although Kelly raised alarms that China could outpace the US when it comes to sixth-generation capabilities, Pacific Air Forces commander Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach had a much more muted reaction when asked about China’s current fighter capabilities on Sept. 19.
虽然马克.凯利上将一直暗示，中国发展第六代战斗机能力的步调上可能超过美国；
然而太平洋区空军司令（Pacific Air Forces commander）肯斯·維斯巴赫 (Gen.Kenneth S. Wilsbach)在9月19日会议上不愿对中国战机能力有所评论。
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注：马克.凯利上将先前接受采访时有评论过歼-20，当时他说“没什么让我特别担心的，...这是他们最先进的战机，我们有有限的机会对其进行评估，看起来还可以（It seems okay），这并不是值得失眠的事情，他们似乎正在大量制造这种战机。”当时采访中，马克.凯利上将评现阶段歼-20还没有让他睡不著的能力，表示对其指挥管制印象比较深刻。他透露美军F-35与歼-20有少数遭遇。
China’s fifth-generation J-20 is “nothing that I would worry too much about,” Wilsbach told reporters. “It’s their most modern aircraft. We’ve had a limited opportunity to aHHss it. Seems okay. It seems okay. It’s not anything to lose a lot of sleep over, but they seem to be a building a lot of them.”
老美的情报和预测能力还是靠谱的 好奇，北边那架，咋就只见了个水花？
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